Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
